Using Current Smoking Prevalence to Project Lung Cancer Morbidity and Mortality in Georgia by 2020

INTRODUCTION Tobacco use is the leading preventable cause of disease and premature death in the United States. In Georgia, approximately 18% of adults smoke cigarettes, and 87% of men's lung cancer deaths and 70% of women's lung cancer deaths are due to smoking. From 2004-2008, the age-adjusted lung cancer incidence rate in Georgia was 112.8 per 100,000 population, and the mortality rate was 88.2 per 100,000 population. METHODS The Georgia Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey was used to estimate trends in current adult smoking prevalence (1985-2010). Georgia smoking-attributable cancer mortality was estimated using a method similar to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Smoking-Attributable Morbidity, Mortality, and Economic Costs application. Data on cancer incidence (1998-2008) were obtained from the Georgia Comprehensive Cancer Registry, and data on cancer deaths (1990-2007) were obtained from the Georgia Department of Public Health Vital Records Program. RESULTS From 1985 through 1993, the prevalence of smoking among Georgians declined by an average of 3% per year in men and 0.2% in women. From 2001 through 2008, lung cancer incidence rates declined in men and increased in women. Lung cancer mortality rates declined in men and women from 2000 through 2007. By 2020, Georgia lung cancer incidence rates are projected to decrease for men and increase for women. Lung cancer mortality is projected to decrease for both men and women. CONCLUSION The lung cancer mortality rates projected in this study are far from meeting the Healthy People 2020 goal (46 per 100,000 population). Full implementation of comprehensive tobacco-use control programs would significantly reduce tobacco-use-related morbidity and mortality.